|
Volume CXXXII, Number 5 |
 |
NBA Preview: Kings to top Magic in '03
J.P. BOX
ORIENT STAFF
I am guilty as charged. The Phoenix Suns did not defeat the Orlando Magic to become the 2002 National Basketball Association Champions. Instead, the Los Angeles Lakers grabbed their third straight title by sweeping the overmatched New Jersey Nets.
Exactly one year ago, I pretended to possess some supernatural power of precognition, picking the Suns and the Magic to square off for the NBA Championship. At the time, it looked like a sure deal with Penny Hardaway and Grant Hill, who drinks Sprite, returning from significant injuries.
However, I failed to realize that their injuries were of the chronic nature. Despite my numerous requests, Phoenix and Orlando refused to fax me the medical rosters.
Hence, my woeful picks were a reflection of the monopolistic medical profession that refused to divulge necessary knowledge. In no way, shape, or form do my picks last year reflect a substantial lack of basketball knowledge or negligent incompetence.
To recap, the Phoenix Suns failed to make the playoffs, finishing 36-46 in an extremely competitive Western Conference. Had they played Division III college ball against teams like Bowdoin, they would have surely made the playoffs.
The Orlando Magic at least earned a postseason bid, but fell in the opening round to the Charlotte Hornets, three games to one. They won one playoff game. In order to have played each other in the playoffs, the Magic and Suns needed a combined 22 victories. I find solace in the fact that I was only 21 short.
Some might think that last year's fiasco may have stopped me from using a public forum to present my picks for this year's NBA Championship. However, at times like this, I remember that Michael Jordan was cut from his high school's varsity basketball team when he was a sophomore. I am trying again, just like Mike.
Let's start with the Western Conference because anyone with a basketball IQ will tell you that the top four teams in the NBA play in the West. In other words, whoever emerges from this league will take the crown.
Who are the big four? Dallas Maverick, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, and this season's world champions to-be Sacramento Kings.
The Mavs will not represent the West in the finals for one simple reason: Raef LaFrentz and Michael Finley helped the U.S. Men's Basketball team finish fifth in world competition. If they cannot contain some dude from Madrid, how will they contain Kobe?
The Spurs have the game's most complete post player in Tim Duncan, but San Antonio will ultimately fall due to their dependence upon David Robinson and Steve Smith, two aging stars past their prime.
The Lakers will not take the title either. In fact, they never should have made it out of last year's seven-game showdown against the Sacramento Kings in the Conference Finals. Relying almost exclusively upon Kobe Bryant and Shaquielle O'Neal for offensive production, the Lakers were not the better team.
Their strong veteran presence and roster of playoff-tested players, including Robert "Big Game" Horry and Rick Fox, was the difference in a tightly contested series.
Conversely, the Kings roster was full of players without significant postseason experience. In addition, Peja Stojakovich, who averages 21.4 points per game during the regular season, was a non-factor in the series due to injury.
After failing to close out a 3-2 series lead in the Conference Finals, the Kings reached for sorry excuses and claimed the existence of a league-wide conspiracy against the Kings.
After game six, Coach Rick Adelman said, "I feel sorry for our team, because they did everything they could to win the game. It's a shame, a real shame. ... Our big guys get 20 fouls, and Shaq gets four. You tell me. Obviously, they got the game called the way they wanted to get it called."
Just for the record, Shaq is an offensive force who plays extremely aggressively, and thus draws a significant number of fouls. Vlade Divac and Scott Pollard do not attack the basket with the power and intensity of an O'Neal. As a result, they draw fewer fouls.
There is no conspiracy afloat that explains the Kings' inability to close out the series-the Lakers were simply more composed down the stretch and hit clutch shots.
In 2003, however, the gap will close and the Kings will not need to complain about the size of Shaq's muscles or the unfair enormity of his skill.
The addition of the athletic, shot-blocking Keon Clark and a healthy Stojakovic will prove to be too much for the Lakers to handle in the Western Conference Finals. The Kings will defeat the world champs in six games to earn a spot in the NBA Finals.
The Eastern Champion will be swept in four games. After facing the likes of the Mavs, Spurs, and Lakers, the Western champ will run right over any contender. But, who will the Kings defeat?
Some analysts may pick the Celtics (even though they traded for the under-achieving Vin Baker), others will pick the Nets to repeat in the East due to presence of Dikembe Mutombo, and still others will pick the Indiana Pacers banking on the continued development of Jermaine O'Neal.
Me? I'm going with the Orlando Magic because Grant Hill claims to be healthy again. Imagine this starting five: Darrell Armstrong at point, Mike Miller at point, Tracy McGrady at small forward, Grant Hill at power forward, and Bo Outlaw at center.
Yes, they are undersized, but they will create offensive mismatches and exploit the opposition's lack of team speed. Their success is contingent upon building an innovative defense in the zone era that will compensate for their lack of size.
The Kings versus the Magic-a coast-to-coast series-and I am the first to pick it.