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Volume CXXXII, Number 22 |
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The war's imaginary horribles
CHRISTIAN POTHOLM
FACULTY CONTRIBUTOR
One of the great delights of democracy is the cacophony
when everyone has her or his say. One of the great banes of our present
democracy is that every TV channel and radio station now feels a need
to fill every day and night with talking-head chatter, no matter how ill
informed.
The second Gulf War produced an unprecedented tidal wave of pontification
and punditry. Many observations proved to be unhelpful to viewers and
listeners and often, just plain wrong. Here is just a smattering of the
imagined "horribles," the worst-case assumptions put forward:
(1) Saddam Hussein's regime is extremely tough and will put up a very strong fight. Actually, the regime collapsed like rotten snow fort in the blazing sun. In less than three week's time!
(2) The United States will suffer enormous casualties. Actually, the United States suffered fewer casualties in the war of 2003 than in the Gulf War of 1991.
(3) The Iraqi people will suffer enormous casualties. Actually, the civilian and indeed the military population of Iraq suffered fewer casualties than in the Gulf War of 1991.
(4) The nationalism of the Iraqi people will drive them to fiercely resist the "foreign invasion." Actually, most of the Iraqi people welcomed the overthrow of Saddam with a vengeance which surprised even Al-Jazera.
(5) The "Arab street" will rise up as one against the U.S. invasion and set the world ablaze. As it has in the past, the Arab street fizzled out after a few days. I must say that the capacity of some of the Arab street for self-pity and delusion is truly extraordinary. How pathetic a warrior culture when the likes of Saddam Hussein, having killed more Moslems than any person in history, is held up as a hero. How pathetic a warrior culture that is reduced to venerating suicide attacks by coerced pregnant women.
I should say parenthetically that I was one of the earliest supporters of an independent Palestinian state and indeed brought the first PLO spokesperson to Bowdoin in the 1970s. And I have always opposed the construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Gaza.
But much of the Arab street seems to think that suffering is a prerogative only of the Palestinian people. Much of the Arab street simply opposes the continued existence of Israel under any circumstances. It is therefore impossible to make peace with that segment of the population. As long as the United States supports Israel's right to exist, there will be widespread and strong opposition to U.S., no matter what else we do. There is no way around this aspect.
(6) There will be a wave of terrorist attacks on U.S. targets all over the world. There was one thwarted bomb attack on a McDonald's in Lebanon. Of course, attacks could still come, but it is impossible to argue at this juncture that the U.S. invasion of Iraq prompted contemporary widespread terror attacks.
(7) The war against Iraq will cost trillions of dollars. I actually heard one commentator say that it could cost more than World War II! To date we've spent $20 billion. World War II coast $2.9 trillion. $20 billion is nothing to sneeze at - except in comparison to the costs of trying to secure the U.S. homeland. As I have written before, there is not enough money in the whole world to accomplish that, so it is cost effective to project power to where the terrorists are, rather than wait for them to come to us and then take action.
(8) There will be widespread terror attacks against the U.S. homeland. There were none.
(9) The U.S. will get bogged down in a major land war and will have to slog it out on the ground. The U.S. military set a world record for speed and distance and reached Baghdad within a few days. It was the longest, fastest blitzkrieg in history. Velocity trumped mass.
(10) Saddam's regime will attack Israel and coalition forces with chemical and biological weapons. Special forces and air attacks, plus the rapid advance of land forces, overran any Iraqi capacity to do this. Indeed, one of the under-reported benefits of the war just conducted was that the Iraqi leadership was so busy moving, hiding and destroying its weapons of mass destruction as we rapidly approached that it couldn't use them.
(11) Saddam's regime will set the oil fields on fire and will
cause a huge disruption of the world's oil supplies. U.S. forces prevented
the destruction of the oil fields all over Iraq. Of over 2000 oil wells,
less than a dozen were set on fire and all are now out.
And so it went. One by one, the imaginary horribles failed to occur as the Coalition, using small group cohesion, superior technology, superb command and control and a brilliant battle plan, challenged centuries old fundamentals of warfare.
This does not mean, of course, that nay-sayers will always be wrong and that none of their imaginary horribles will ever come to pass during some future phase of this ongoing war. But it does mean, categorically and unequivocally, that they were very, very wrong about this phase.
Two final observations:
First, the level of questions asked by many of the reporters covering this war was abysmally superficial and herd-driven. Most seemed to have no understanding of military action and exhibited the same desire for instant gratification on all fronts at all times which I find so naïve in major segments of the American population. As a society, we simply need to insist that those reporters who cover military actions have some modicum of understanding about the nature of war and have some historical reference framework into which to put their instant analysis.
Second, I continue to believe that the United States has been forced-against its will-into a decades long struggle with terrorism all over the world. Once having been engaged, we cannot wish it away with platitudes or pandering to those who wish our destruction. Iraq is only one battle in a continuing war that has a long, long way to run.
This ongoing war will outlast the second Bush administration and others to come. We'd all better get used to it.
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