|
Volume CXXXIII, Number 7 |
 |
North Korea flexing nuclear and political muscle
YARON EISENBERG
CONTRIBUTOR
The latest dosage of diplomatic maneuvering between the United States and North Korea serves as an example of what happens when a "rogue" state attains nuclear capabilities coupled with the delivery system necessary to launch such weapons. The United States and North Korea have not seen eye-to-eye on the issue of nukes, to say the least.
Just recently however, each has changed their stance significantly. The United States is now ready to discuss, with other Asian nations present, a non-aggression pact with South Korea's dictatorial neighbor. The North Korean government 2003-10-31ly acknowledges the possibility of future talks with the world's superpower, potentially leading to an agreement that may require the North Korean government to disarm and neutralize their nuclear capability.
The sudden shift from silence to the proposition of face-to-face verbal diplomacy is the only option Washington has left. North Korea clearly has the upper hand, and it is a dangerous one. When a rogue state attains nuclear weapons, all bets are off. Pre-emptive strikes are no long an option. Every move Washington or other states make can yield uncertain results with potentially damaging consequences.
Washington missed its chance during the last administration to deal with North Korea safely and effectively. The Clinton Administration chose to address the Korean Peninsula crisis by the classic Clintononian approach, negotiations and trust, which resulted in a faulty agreement.
Despite the Clinton Administration's assurances, North Korea pursued a nuclear and ballistic missile development program. Although rather predictable, Clinton was unfortunately easily duped by Kim Jong-Il, the North Korean leader. By trusting a psychopathic, calculating, politically savvy, deceiving, brutal dictator such as Kim Jong-Il, the United States effectively lost the coercive edge. Appeasement never stops a determined dictator.
Washington presently finds itself in a bit of a predicament. The recent test firing of missiles towards Japan several times in the past two weeks by Pyongyang is nothing new. North Korea has the arms and the delivery system to target any coordinate in its region along with the ability to cause immense destruction. Pyongyang intends, as Jong-Il has been projecting recently, to flex its newly-found military muscle in hopes of translating intimidation into political concessions and, in essence, appeasement.
As a result of North Korea's acquisition of the key intimidation and bargaining tool, the latest move towards negotiations cannot be avoided. Washington has no choice but to engage in desperate diplomatic measures, which forces Washington to retreat from its original stance; demanding Pyongyang to disarm without any preconditions. North Korea responded by agreeing to listen, in theory, to the United States' demands.
The Bush Administration needs to be careful that it does not fall into the same trap its predecessor succumbed to. After all of the time, money, and deception techniques employed, and after gaining a sheepish form of international prestige, it is hard to believe that North Korea will sincerely abandon its nuclear project.
All of the smoke and mirrors on the Korean Peninsula signify one thing. If North Korea did not attain nuclear weapons, we would not be in the present crisis of attempting to deal with a maniacal dictator armed with one of civilization's deadliest of devices. The affair serves as a warning of worse things to come if proper action and caution are not taken.
Two very dangerous states are on the nuclear horizon. Both states are in a volatile region. Both states have a longstanding history of terrorism. Both states have a long history of exporting violence, strong rhetoric, and threats towards the United States and nuclear/apocalyptic threats to its allies. There is ample reason to believe that these states may act upon their threats if they feel justified.
These states are Iran and Libya. Iran already has a missile that is capable of delivering a nuclear warhead anywhere in the Middle East, and is 2003-10-31ly developing a new Shihab missile that will have the European continent in its sights. The delivery system coupled with a growing nuclear program provides room for real concern. Care needs to be taken in the coming year in order to avoid a harsher Korean Peninsula playback.
|
FastCounter by bCentral |