Volume CXXXIII, Number 16 February 27, 2004

Conservative dissent
HENRY WORK
CONTRIBUTOR

It was obvious that Republican Senator John McCain, during an interview on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart in late January, was having fun. Bringing up Bush's proposal for a revitalization of lunar expeditions, McCain wondered aloud: "Has someone told him that we've already been there?"

When McCain reminisced about "the party of the balanced budget amendment to the constitution," the frustrations of a very distinguished Senator were clear. After he indicated he would briefly be visiting New Hampshire during the primaries, Stewart, interrupting, wryly pushed: "Supporting which Democratic candidate?"

Collectively, McCain's comments were a sarcastic but rather scathing set of witticisms. Moreover, they publicize a less temperate kind of criticism growing within conservative circles. The past month has brought increasing dissent among the Republican party-faithful.

In 2003, the Republican Party was very loyal on the elite level. Republicans were at an all-time high in terms of party unity in Congress. Along with these majorities, the administration had a very successful legislative year.

The last month, however, as indicated by countless, cheering liberal blogs, has been a very bad one for the administration.

Between the release of the David Kay report, attacks on the president's personal war record, the retraction of a 2.6 million job gain prediction ("it's more of a goal, really"), and the latest FOXNews poll placing the president's approval ratings at an all-time low (48 percent), from a communications standpoint the White House has seen easier times.

So it's odd timing that two Republican senators and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich joined Democrats against Bush's call for a renewal of the controversial Patriot Act.

It's odd that the Republican-dominated Virginia State Legislature passed a nearly unanimous resolution to try and exempt itself from the president's unfunded mandate, the No Child Left Behind Act.

And it's especially odd when Rush Limbaugh, of all the loyal conservatives, blames the current President for his spending policies. Other Republican pundits haven't recently lauded Bush's recent appearances either. Writers from the rightist National Review Online critiqued Bush after an important interview amid Iraq and guard service issues, one admitting a "twinge of fear" for November, another musing of Bush: "Let's face it, the Great Communicator he ain't."

Party unity is never absolute, and criticism always abounds from the truly loyal and disloyal alike (especially from the media). But the forecast is bleak for Republicans when recent bashing of the administration comes from within the party and corresponds with probably the worst political month of the Bush presidency.

On Tuesday the administration threw all its weight behind a constitutional amendment effectively banning same-sex marriage. It is a national issue guaranteed to fill the headlines, and the timing seemed to be in reaction to how incredibly poor the month has been.

It is even more telling, then, that House Majority Leader Tom DeLay advised caution regarding this obviously divisive but distracting issue. Moreover, by Wednesday night, 34 senators, including at least eight Republicans, had indicated their opposition to the press or via statement.

The question of substance, of course, is of electoral ramifications to this dissent. The Republican electorate historically votes more loyally and shows up more at the polls. The best commentary I read on Ralph Nader entering the presidential race didn't have anything to do with Nader at all - it was a postulate, made by Mark Schmitt, blogger of The Decembrist, that the Libertarian Party will have the biggest third-party impact on the 2004 Presidential election.

What if libertarian-leaning conservatives who voted for Bush in 2000 break off from the party-line? As Schmitt generalizes, Libertarians could embrace conservatives who worry about the not-so-conservative ideals becoming increasingly associated with the Republican Party: fiscal irresponsibility, eroding protection of freedoms, broader federal roles in education, and even a basic questioning of the right of states to regulate marriage.

"Do you love your country? Do you support your president?"-the College Republicans ask this of conservatives at Bowdoin in their BCN commerical. The clear frame earmarks or equally hostile one soon to come nationwide: the administration's attempt to quell elite conservative dissent with strong emotional appeals. The amendment proposal is probably the first indication of this strategy.

The administration can either whip its figureheads back under control, and hope for continued loyalty from its voting base, or conservative defections, possibly listening to some of the breaking-rank leaders, will be the prevelant in November. After Nader tipped the scales in 2000, and is trying to again, this year I can only hope for a counter-weight.

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